2025: Making an Ass-of-u-and-me
A couple of nights ago I was sat having a relatively cheery ‘Dry January’ catch-up with some friends of mind. The conversation turned to politics and the rapidly changing ‘power landscape’ we are living in. I was engaged at first but slowly my vim for insightful debate faded as my friends started to make sweeping declarations and assertions on the Governance of California, healthcare, the energy and water crisis, and subjects with such complexity which, quite frankly, none of us were informed enough about.
With this, I reflect. I’m beginning to think that we are shifting and living in what I call the Age of Assumption. It’s an era marked not by the lack of information, but by an overabundance of it—much of it incomplete, context-free, or outright false. The Global Risks Report 2025 reveals a world grappling with interconnected crises, from environmental catastrophe to social fragmentation. But another risk runs parallel, exacerbating all others: the erosion of informed decision-making.
More and more, we see individuals and institutions acting as the authorities of knowledge, making decisions—or influencing others—without the full breadth of knowledge actually available to them. What’s startling is not just the mistakes that arise but the lack of humility to say, “I don’t know enough about this to make a judgment.”
Instead, people increasingly rely on convenient shortcuts: resting on outdated assumptions, uncritically accepting AI outputs, or clinging to their own opinions, bolstered by echo chambers reinforcing existing biases. This phenomenon transcends the political spectrum. Both the left and the right are guilty of conflating opinion with fact, mistaking consensus in their respective bubbles for objective truth.
Misinformation in a Free-Speech Era
Some may see the WEF's identification of this trend as a global risk, a threat to free speech. On the contrary, the risk is not a world where speech is censored but one where there’s so much noise, clamor, and click-bait that no one can hear real informed perspectives. The proliferation of misinformation and disinformation, as highlighted in the report, is creating a feedback loop of confusion and division. This isn’t just an abstract risk—it has tangible consequences.
Take, for instance, the wildfires in California. Theories abound about their origins—some suggesting human actors and criminal arson, others playing politics, discussing which leaders are present and making broad populist statements that sound like ‘common sense’ but lack nuance. Yet these claims often skip the necessary step of investigation, jumping straight to conclusions. What we can observe are hard facts:
As of January 27, 2025, California’s Department of Forestry and Fire Protection reported 44,892 total emergency responses, 306 wildfires, 57,528 acres burned, and 16,255 structures destroyed.
Conditions have been ripe for such disasters: an exceptionally dry period (downtown LA has seen only 0.16 inches of rain since October) and powerful Santa Ana winds.
These uncommon winter conditions reflect broader changes in our global climate.
The above points offer a foundation for further inquiry, not a definitive explanation. Yes, there were failures in LA’s planning, infrastructure, and resilience. There is always something that could have gone better in retrospect, in any situation. But this is the discourse we should be having. After events like this individuals, businesses, and government should say “What can we do to build back better”. But too often, this tempered, balanced approach is shouted down as public discourse leaps to assign blame or promote unverified theories, leaving us mired in speculation rather than solutions to prevent the conditions that lead to the disaster.
Abandoning the Systemic Approach
This tendency toward assumption reflects a broader failure to take a systemic view when making decisions. Historically, pre-industrial societies approached problem-solving with a blend of spiritualism, community governance, traditions, and deep connections to nature. While I’m not suggesting praying to Brigantia, dancing to the beat of the Prentin drum, or mimicking my (or any of our) ancestors’ vernacular traditions is going to solve this problem, their capacity for integration—the ability to see how individual pieces fit within a larger whole—is something we’ve lost.
Today, decision-making often overlooks these interconnected dynamics. Consider how misinformation amplifies other risks identified in the Global Risks Report:
Social Fragmentation: Polarized societies are more likely to believe and spread disinformation, further eroding trust.
Environmental Risk: Denial or distortion of climate data delays action on critical issues like wildfire prevention and disaster resilience or renewable energy adoption and climate impact mitigation.
Technological Risk: AI tools and ‘social’ platforms that generate or deliver false, unwarranted, or misleading content at scale can entrench divisions and misinform policy decisions.
This is no longer just an ethical issue—it’s a practical one. For businesses, governments, and individuals alike, the failure to incorporate diverse perspectives, deeper analysis, and long-term thinking undermines resilience and profitability.
The Case for Taking Pause
What can we do? We can take pause—a moment to step back and reevaluate the systems we rely on for information, decision-making, and collaboration. This is not altruism; it’s common sense. Taking the time to examine the broader context of a problem for yourself or your business doesn’t just produce better outcomes; it builds trust and credibility, qualities in short supply today.
This pause need not be paralyzing. It’s about shifting from reactive to reflective. For example:
Acknowledge gaps in knowledge. Saying “I don’t know enough” is not weakness; it’s a step toward finding real answers.
Resist the allure of quick conclusions, especially when they reinforce pre-existing beliefs.
Foster cross-disciplinary collaboration to address complex challenges with a systemic lens.
The risks outlined in the Global Risks Report 2025—from climate change to misinformation—demand that we think and act differently. The stakes are clear. A world unmoored from truth and systemic thinking will be less resilient, less stable, and less capable of addressing the cascading crises we face.
The age of assumption can end—but only if we choose to embrace humility, rigor, and the uncomfortable yet necessary work of seeking the full picture. Only then can free speech coexist with a collective commitment to truth. Only then can we make decisions worthy of the challenges before us.